MML Discourse archived in May, 2026

Lab 2 Hand In

mark

(20 pts)

Submit your results to Lab 2 by responding here. your response should include

  • A list of the variables that you used in your model,
  • Any other changes that you made to the code in the lab notebook,
  • A link to the your version of the notebook that you've shared with me,
  • The score obtained from our scoring tool, and
  • A screenshot of the bracket that includes the score.
User 006

1.The variables I used were: diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_SeedNum","diff_OppPF","diff_TeamAvgScore","diff_TeamAvgStl","diff_DefensiveEfficiency","diff_OffensiveEfficiency","diff_Tempo
2.I made no other changes than switching up the variables
3.Google Colab
4.The score i got was 0.15486

Screenshot 2026-03-18 132753
Screenshot 2026-03-18 1327531899×992 165 KB

User 009

variables:
["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_TeamAvgFTA", "diff_eigen_rating"]

changes: N/A

notebook link:

You may want to copy link into browser manually, as this hyperlink may not work

Score obtained from scoring tool:
Overall Brier score = 0.12659
Men's Brier score = 0.14924

Screenshot of bracket including score:

image_2026-03-23_030910915
image_2026-03-23_0309109151920×1080 192 KB

User 018

FEATURES = ["diff_eigen_rating","diff_SeedNum","diff_OffensiveEfficiency","diff_OppDR", "diff_massey_rating","diff_TeamAvgFTA","diff_TeamAvgScore"]

No changes.

The score was 0.10236

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1df_-tPaX3D0YX-OimVysXEjh5L8Bfjkl?usp=sharing

image_2026-03-18_133548081
image_2026-03-18_1335480811707×857 145 KB

User 012
FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_eigen_rating", 
"diff_massey_rating", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency"]

Overall Brier score = 0.12217
Men's Brier score = 0.13970
Women's Brier score = 0.10465

Screenshot 2026-03-18 at 13-38-53 NCAA Prediction Brackets – Mark’s Math
Screenshot 2026-03-18 at 13-38-53 NCAA Prediction Brackets – Mark’s Math2736×1738 471 KB

audrey

I used the following variables for the men's side:

 ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", 'diff_massey_rating']

My Brier score was Men's Brier score = 0.14093.

Screenshot 2026-03-18 134506
Screenshot 2026-03-18 1345061076×415 29.2 KB

User 013

The variables I used

["diff_conf_eigen_rating","diff_TeamAvgTO","diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_SeedNum","diff_OffensiveEfficiency","diff_conf_massey_rating","diff_massey_rating"]

I made no changes other changes to the notebook

The link to the notebook: Google Colab

I got a score of 0.13772

image
image1619×840 76.8 KB

User 022

Variables: 'diff_massey_rating',

'diff_conf_massey_rating',

'diff_eigen_rating',  

'diff_TeamAvgBlk',

'diff_TeamAvgFGM',  

'diff_OffensiveEfficiency', 

'diff_TeamAvgScore'

Mens: 0.13770

image
image1677×855 147 KB

Womens: 0.10268

image
image1631×850 144 KB

Overall: 0.12019

User 005

Variables: "diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_TeamAvgAst", "diff_TeamAvgBlk", "diff_TeamAvgDR", "diff_TeamAvgFGA", "diff_TeamAvgFGA3", "diff_TeamAvgFGM", "diff_TeamAvgFGM3", "diff_TeamAvgFTA", "diff_TeamAvgFTM", "diff_TeamAvgOR", "diff_TeamAvgPF", "diff_TeamAvgStl", "diff_TeamAvgTO", "diff_OppAst", "diff_OppBlk", "diff_OppDR", "diff_OppFGA", "diff_OppFGA3", "diff_OppFGM", "diff_OppFGM3", "diff_OppFTA", "diff_OppFTM", "diff_OppOR", "diff_OppPF", "diff_OppStl", "diff_OppTO", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_DefensiveEfficiency", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_Tempo", "diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_massey_rating", "rating_diff_x_tempo_diff"

Used both men's and women's game data.

Copy of Lab2KaggleNCAA.ipynb - Colab

Overall Brier score = 0.12716
Men's Brier score = 0.14769
Women's Brier score = 0.10663

Screenshot 2026-03-18 134052
Screenshot 2026-03-18 1340521905×870 151 KB

User 008

Variables: ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_TeamAvgAst", "diff_TeamAvgBlk", "diff_TeamAvgDR", 'diff_TeamAvgFGA', 'diff_TeamAvgFGA3', 'diff_TeamAvgFGM', 'diff_TeamAvgFGM3', 'diff_TeamAvgFTA', 'diff_TeamAvgFTM', 'diff_TeamAvgOR', 'diff_TeamAvgPF', 'diff_TeamAvgStl', 'diff_TeamAvgTO', 'diff_OppAst', 'diff_OppBlk', 'diff_OppDR', 'diff_OppFGA', 'diff_OppFGA3', 'diff_OppFGM', 'diff_OppFGM3', 'diff_OppFTA', 'diff_OppFTM', 'diff_OppOR', 'diff_OppPF', 'diff_OppStl', 'diff_OppTO', 'diff_SeedNum', 'diff_DefensiveEfficiency', 'diff_OffensiveEfficiency', 'diff_Tempo', 'diff_conf_eigen_rating', 'diff_conf_massey_rating', 'diff_eigen_rating', 'diff_massey_rating', 'rating_diff_x_tempo_diff']

Changes: N/A

Link: Google Colab

Score: Overall Brier score = 0.15606, Men's Brier score = 0.20549, Women's Brier score = 0.10663

Screenshot:

image
image3012×1516 409 KB

User 007

My variables where: "diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_massey_rating"

Using the men's game data.

predictionsM.csv (76.1 KB)

Got a Brier score of 0.14093

image
image1665×998 159 KB

User 024

Variables: ["diff_eigen_rating", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore"]

No other changes.

My Brier score was 0.13777

Screenshot 2026-03-18 160534
Screenshot 2026-03-18 1605341231×827 51.2 KB

User 002

Variables: ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_SeedNum", "diff_massey_rating","diff_conf_massey_rating"]
No other changes were made.
Link: Google Colab
Brier score = 0.12267

basketball
basketball1836×937 198 KB

User 014
  1. Variables used: FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_OppDR", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_TeamAvgFTA"]

No other changes.

  1. Score: 0.12292.

NCAA Prediction Brackets – Mark’s Math — Mozilla Firefox 3_19_2026 11_23_04 PM
NCAA Prediction Brackets – Mark’s Math — Mozilla Firefox 3_19_2026 11_23_04 PM1080×1920 174 KB

User 026

Variables: FEATURES = ["diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_TeamAvgTO", "diff_TeamAvgScore","diff_OppScore", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency","diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_massey_rating"]

Changes: None.

Score: 0.13775

Colab:Google Colab

Vizualizer:

Screenshot 2026-03-20 at 1.01.23 PM
Screenshot 2026-03-20 at 1.01.23 PM1920×1088 255 KB

User 023
  • FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_SeedNum","diff_TeamAvgFTA","diff_TeamAvgStl","rating_diff_x_tempo_diff","diff_eigen_rating"]
  • No other changes
  • Google Colab
  • Overall Brier score = 0.12627
  • Men's Brier score = 0.14819
    image
    image1253×886 60.4 KB
User 003
  1. Variables
FEATURES = ['diff_eigen_rating', 'diff_massey_rating', 'diff_OppDR', 'diff_SeedNum', 'diff_TeamAvgAst', 'diff_TeamAvgPF', 'diff_OffensiveEfficiency', 'diff_OppTO', 'diff_TeamAvgFTA', 'diff_TeamAvgScore', 'diff_TeamAvgFGM']
  1. The model only uses the last 5 years of data by using a view of the dataframe where the year is extracted from the 'ID'.
train['Year']=train['ID'].str.split('_').str[0].astype(int)
train_last5y=train[train.Year>2018]
  1. Colab Notebook
  2. Brier score: 0.14741
  3. Screenshot
    Screenshot 2026-03-21 at 9.01.09 PM
    Screenshot 2026-03-21 at 9.01.09 PM1920×1120 355 KB
User 015
  • The variables I used were "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_SeedNum"
  • The only change I made was to list the feature coefficients in decending absolute value order so I could see which variables had the most weight
  • Link to notebook
  • 0.14031
    aschlicher_bracket
    aschlicher_bracket2299×1409 294 KB
User 004

Variables used:
FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_TeamAvgAst", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_conf_eigen_rating"]

brier score
brier score1361×665 55.4 KB

User 019

The variables I used:

FEATURES = ["diff_OppPF", "diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_TeamAvgTO", "diff_TeamAvgScore","diff_OppScore", 
             "diff_OppOR", "diff_OppFTM", "diff_DefensiveEfficiency","diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_TeamAvgFGM3", 
            "diff_massey_rating", "diff_OppStl", "diff_TeamAvgBlk", "diff_OppFGM", "diff_TeamAvgTO", "diff_eigen_rating"]

No other changes done.

Link to the colab: Google Colab

Score: 0.13567

march
march1627×807 116 KB

User 016

Variables: [ "diff_OppScore", "diff_TeamAvgTO", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_DefensiveEfficiency" ]

I didn't make any other changes
Copy of Lab2KaggleNCAA.ipynb - Colab

image
image1733×925 65.1 KB

User 010

  1. Variables: FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore","diff_SeedNum","diff_OppTO","diff_TeamAvgPF","diff_OppAst","diff_DefensiveEfficiency"]

  2. I just added variables

  3. Google Colab

  4. Score (womens only): 0.10906

image
image1306×752 55.8 KB

User 017
  1. I used "diff_SeedNum", "diff_massey_rating", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_DefensiveEfficiency" as my variables for the men’s bracket only.
  2. no changes
  3. Google Colab

image
image2516×1362 509 KB

User 020

FEATURES = ["diff_TeamAvgScore", "diff_OppScore", "diff_SeedNum", "diff_DefensiveEfficiency", "diff_OffensiveEfficiency", "diff_Tempo", "diff_conf_eigen_rating", "diff_conf_massey_rating", "diff_eigen_rating", "diff_massey_rating", "rating_diff_x_tempo_diff"]

No other changes made to code.

Overall Brier score = 0.12084
Women's Brier score = 0.10239

bracket_gayfield
bracket_gayfield1967×1654 151 KB

mark